MLB / mlb / live
LAA 5 / WSN 6LAALos Angeles Angels46%
WSNWashington Nationals54%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
LAA46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
WSN54%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -116 draftkings / U -102 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 fanduel / U -150 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130LAA / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total