Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIA 6 / WSN 2
MIAMiami Marlins49%
WSNWashington Nationals51%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterJanson JunkConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
MIA49%ML +105
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
WSN51%ML -122

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -148 draftkings / U +130 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -154 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -122MIA / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total