MLB / mlb / live
COL 3 / WSN 1COLColorado Rockies43%
WSNWashington Nationals57%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMason AdamsConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
COL43%ML +140
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
WSN57%ML -165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mason AdamsCOL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 5 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.521%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +111 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -165COL / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total