MLB / mlb / live
CHC 0 / WSN 7CHCChicago Cubs55%
WSNWashington Nationals45%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
WSNHome starterCade CavalliConfirmed
CHC55%ML -150
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
WSN45%ML +130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 betonlineag / U -144 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-150 / +130CHC / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total