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TOR 5 / WSN 2
TORToronto Blue Jays50%
WSNWashington Nationals50%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline50%Model 20260727_auto
WSNHome starterZack LittellConfirmed
TOR50%ML -120
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
WSN50%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model has WSN 50.4% vs market 48.4%, essentially a coin flip. TOR's 2.8 RPG is alarmingly low but Yesavage (3.92 ERA, 9.21 K/9) is superior to Littell (5.17 ERA, 5.88 K/9). Model total 9.24 vs market 9.5 both suggest under in a modest park (0.959 PF). Slight TOR lean on pitching comparison.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.6
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zack LittellWSN starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -143 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100TOR / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total