Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 3 / WSN 5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
WSNWashington Nationals55%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
WSNHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
ARI45%ML +116
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
WSN55%ML -137

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+116 / -137ARI / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total