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TOR 3 / WSN 2
TORToronto Blue Jays47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
WSNHome starterEddy YeanConfirmed
TOR47%ML +105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts

Market has WSN at 55.6%, model essentially coin-flip at 50.8% TOR. Scherzer's 10.23 ERA over 22 IP signals decline or injury; WSN's 7.1 RPG offense should capitalize. Alvarez serviceable at 4.22 ERA. Model underweights recent offensive form (WSN 7.1 vs TOR 2.4 RPG). Total sits near market 9.5; no comparison.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -157 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.554%over
O 3.532%over
O 4.517%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eddy YeanWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -124TOR / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total