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ARI 7 / WSN 10
ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
WSNWashington Nationals55%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterKohl DrakeConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
WSNHome starterMiles MikolasConfirmed
ARI45%ML -118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
WSN55%ML -1

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts

Model picks WSN 54.7%, market has ARI -112 (52.8%). Mikolas' 5.6 ERA in 98 IP is real; Drake's 1.8 ERA in 5 IP is noise. ARI's superior record (55-50 vs 53-52) and WSN's offensive park (.959 PF) don't justify model's home lean. Total: model 9.15 vs market 10.0, lean under given Nationals Park suppresses runs.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Miles MikolasWSN starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -125 betmgm / U +112 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-118 / -1ARI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total