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ARI 3 / WSN 2
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
WSNWashington Nationals54%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
WSNHome starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
ARI46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
WSN54%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts

Model likes WSN at 54% but market has ARI favored at 53.3%. Rodriguez (2.62 ERA, 116.7 IP) vs Palmquist (8.74 ERA, 11.3 IP) is a massive starter mismatch the model underweights. WSN offense is strong (.82 OPS) but Palmquist's instability tilts this to ARI. Total: park factor 0.959 and Rodriguez's form suggest under 9.5.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Carson PalmquistWSN starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +105ARI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total