MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / WSN 8HOUHouston Astros50%
WSNWashington Nationals50%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
HOU50%ML +111
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
WSN50%ML -133
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +127 draftkings / U -148 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+111 / -133HOU / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total