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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
NYYNew York Yankees50%
WSNWashington Nationals50%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerProbable
Model pickWSN moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterMiles MikolasProbable
NYY50%ML -196
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
WSN50%ML +164

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.7 pts

Model's coin-flip call (50.0% WSN) misses the pitcher quality gap. Schlittler: 2.01 ERA, 10.53 K/9 over 112 IP is legitimate dominance. Mikolas: 5.78 ERA, 4.98 K/9 is batting practice. Market has NYY at 64% implied, model sees a toss-up. Pinnacle knows better. Total: market 9.0, model 9.4. Schlittler in a neutral park argues under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.561%
O 5.544%
O 6.529%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Miles MikolasWSN starter / home
Projected K4.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.576%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.523%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-196 / +164NYY / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total