MLB / mlb / live
HOU 11 / WSN 12HOUHouston Astros47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike BurrowsConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterMiles MikolasConfirmed
HOU47%ML -102
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
WSN53%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mike BurrowsHOU starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -144 draftkings / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Miles MikolasWSN starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +136 fanduel / U -174 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-102 / -115HOU / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total