MLB / mlb / live
PIT 5 / WSN 9PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch KellerConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
WSNHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
PIT42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
WSN58%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 draftkings / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%under
O 3.588%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143PIT / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -120 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total