MLB / mlb / live
PIT 11 / WSN 5PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
WSNWashington Nationals56%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
WSNHome starterCade CavalliConfirmed
PIT44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
WSN56%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -142 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143PIT / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total