MLB / mlb / live
PIT 7 / WSN 1PITPittsburgh Pirates53%
WSNWashington Nationals47%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
WSNHome starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
PIT53%ML -157
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN47%ML +132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 6.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Carson PalmquistWSN starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-157 / +132PIT / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total