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PHI 5 / WSN 4
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
WSNWashington Nationals42%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
WSNHome starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
PHI58%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
WSN42%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.0 pts

Model and market align on PHI (58% vs implied 56%). Both starters struggling: Mikolas 5.47 ERA, Nola 5.71 ERA over ~75 IP each. WSN offense slightly better (.82 vs .57 OPS) but PHI road comparison mild. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.49 suggests under value with pitcher park (0.959 PF) and mediocre offenses.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.6
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Carson PalmquistWSN starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-125 / +105PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total