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KCR 4 / WSN 6
KCRKansas City Royals38%
WSNWashington Nationals62%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
WSNHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
KCR38%ML +117
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
WSN62%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.6 pts

Model has WSN 62.4% vs market 55.8%, a 6.6pp gap favoring home. Both pitchers solid (Griffin 3.46 ERA, Wacha 3.58 ERA in 78-88 IP). WSN offense much stronger (6.8 RPG, .820 OPS vs KCR 4.5 RPG, .518 OPS). Slight pitcher park (0.959 PF). Model total 8.91 vs market 9.0 aligns. Lean WSN on offense gap, under on twin sub-3.60 ERAs.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -157 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -139 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+117 / -139KCR / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total