MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / WSN 7KCRKansas City Royals46%
WSNWashington Nationals54%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMitch SpenceConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
KCR46%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
WSN54%ML -137
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mitch SpenceKCR starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 draftkings / U -145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -137KCR / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total