MLB / mlb / live
MIA 7 / WSN 3MIAMiami Marlins55%
WSNWashington Nationals45%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterCade Cavalli
MIA55%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
WSN45%ML -140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.9 pts
Model picks MIA at 55.2% while market implies WSN 56.6%—a 11.4pp disagreement. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, not signal. Cavalli's 3.2 IP across 10 starts screams injured/opener role. Model likely overfit to Alcantara's tiny hot streak and misweighted Cavalli's structural uncertainty. Defer to market on side; lean under given thin pitcher data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -140MIA / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+147)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total