MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / WSN 3BALBaltimore Orioles46%
WSNWashington Nationals54%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterZack Littell
BAL46%ML -137
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
WSN54%ML +117
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.2 pts
Market disagrees strongly: Pinnacle has BAL -132 (57% implied), model has WSN 53.5%. Model is wrong-weighting away_pitcher_last_short_era despite Baz's 6.75 season ERA. WSN offense (5.9 RPG, .820 OPS) is clearly superior to BAL (3.9 RPG, .662 OPS), yet model picks WSN with confidence. Side with market on BAL. Total 9.0 vs market 9.5: lean under given pitcher park and model undershot.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-137 / +117BAL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total