MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / WSN 15MINMinnesota Twins36%
WSNWashington Nationals64%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickWSN moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterMiles Mikolas
MIN36%ML -135
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
WSN64%ML +115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time19.6 pts
Model has WSN at 64% vs market's 44.5% — a 19.5-point gap flags major disagreement. Both pitchers show poor ERA (7.20, 6.75) but tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.0 IP each over 10 starts means ~30 min per start — likely bulk/opener data). Market likely prices team context better than model's rolling windows. Lean MIN and under the 9.5.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-135 / +115MIN / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total