MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / WSN 15MINMinnesota Twins36%
WSNWashington Nationals64%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickWSN moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterMiles Mikolas
MIN36%ML -135
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
WSN64%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap19.3 pts
Model has WSN at 64% vs market's 44.5% — a 19.5-point gap flags major disagreement. Both pitchers show poor ERA (7.20, 6.75) but tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.0 IP each over 10 starts means ~30 min per start — likely bulk/opener data). Market likely prices team context better than model's rolling windows. Lean MIN and under the 9.5.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-135 / +115MIN / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total