MLB / mlb / live
MIL 2 / WSN 3MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan Henderson
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterPJ Poulin
MIL42%ML -138
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
WSN58%ML +115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts
Model picks WSN at 57.5% but market has MIL -130 (implied 56.5% MIL). With TBD for MIL starter and missing pitcher stats for both sides, confidence must stay low. MIL's offensive comparison (5.2 RPG, .972 OPS vs 4.1, .820) supports fading the model here. Structural uncertainty dominates.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-138 / +115MIL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total