MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / WSN 1MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterFoster Griffin
MIL42%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
WSN58%ML +112
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.5 pts
Model has WSN at 58% but market implies MIL 54%. MIL's .972 OPS and 6.0 RPG dwarf WSN's .82 OPS and 5.1 RPG. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes total prediction unreliable—model says 9.06, market 7.5. Lean MIL on offense gap but pass on total without pitcher metrics.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +112MIL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -109 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total