MLB / mlb / live
ATL 8 / WSN 6ATLAtlanta Braves43%
WSNWashington Nationals57%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterDidier Fuentes
Model pickWSN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterZack Littell
ATL43%ML -142
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
WSN57%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap13.5 pts
Model has WSN at 58% vs market's 43%, a massive 15-point gap. ATL has superior record (16-8 vs 11-13) and better RPG (5.8 vs 5.5). Model picking the worse team triggers offense_defense_mismatch. Missing pitcher stats make me distrust model's confidence here. Defer to market.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-142 / +120ATL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total