MLB / mlb / live
CIN 5 / TOR 6CINCincinnati Reds41%
TORToronto Blue Jays59%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterNick LodoloConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
TORHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
CIN41%ML +130
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
TOR59%ML -157
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +105 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%under
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -157CIN / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total