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DET 1 / TOR 5
DETDetroit Tigers54%
TORToronto Blue Jays46%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
DET54%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TOR46%ML -130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts

Starter gap is the cleanest signal: Montero at 3.55 ERA/1.03 WHIP over 147 IP against Scherzer at 6.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP in 67.7 IP. Market makes TOR a 55.6% favorite on team quality, but that ignores the mound mismatch, so DET at +121 has value. Team offense lines (TOR 3.9 RPG on .786 OPS, DET 6.3 RPG on .582 OPS) look internally inconsistent, so no total view and no upgrade past standard.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -145 draftkings / U +122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 2.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 draftkings / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -130DET / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total