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SEA 0 / TOR 7
SEASeattle Mariners49%
TORToronto Blue Jays51%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
SEA49%ML -139
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TOR51%ML +117

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.2 pts

Model has TOR at 50.9% against a market implying 43.7%, and the pitching gap argues against it: Gilbert carries a 3.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.39 K/9 over 155.1 IP, while Scherzer sits at 7.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across 50 IP. Neutral park (0.997) offers no offset. Take Seattle; Scherzer's WHIP supports leaning over the 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 draftkings / U +126 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 betonlineag / U -130 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +117SEA / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -113
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total