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SEA 1 / TOR 8
SEASeattle Mariners43%
TORToronto Blue Jays57%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
SEA43%ML +127
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
TOR57%ML -148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Market implies 62.1% on Toronto vs the model's 57.0%; with Cease at a 2.37 ERA, 13.03 K/9 and 1.06 WHIP over 144.1 IP against an unnamed Seattle starter, the market side looks right. The model's 8.54-run total sits 1.5+ above the 7.0 line and appears to ignore Cease's strikeout profile in a neutral park (PF 0.997). Fallback data on the SEA arm caps conviction.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U -104 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K8.7Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -120 betonlineag / U +105 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 7.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.592%over
O 5.585%over
O 6.575%over
O 7.563%over
O 8.550%under
O 9.538%under
O 10.527%under
O 11.518%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+127 / -148SEA / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -104 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total