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KCR 5 / TOR 3
KCRKansas City Royals53%
TORToronto Blue Jays47%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
KCR53%ML +114
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TOR47%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Model takes KCR at 53.5% while market implies 54.7% home — an 8+ point gap I won't follow. Scherzer's 7.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 45 IP is a real concern, but Lugo (4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) offers little comparison. Team stat lines look inconsistent (KCR 5.7 RPG with .518 OPS), so I weight the market. Shaky starters support over 8.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 draftkings / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 fanduel / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -132KCR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total