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NYY 1 / TOR 4
NYYNew York Yankees58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterBraydon FisherConfirmed
NYY58%ML -192
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TOR42%ML +160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts

Model (58.2%) and market (61.6% implied) both favor NYY, so the side is uncontroversial despite Toronto's better OPS (.786 vs .692). The 9.03 model total against a 7.0 line looks like a structural miss: Schlittler's 2.21 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.17 K/9 at a neutral Rogers Centre (PF 1.00) argue under, and NYY's 3.4 RPG caps the ceiling.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 betrivers / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Braydon FisherTOR starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%under
O 2.543%under
O 3.522%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-192 / +160NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total