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BOS 7 / TOR 0
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
BOS58%ML -145
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TOR42%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model (58.2% BOS) and market (-154) essentially agree, so no comparison argument needed to side with Boston. The starter gap is the story: Tolle at 3.20 ERA and 10.43 K/9 over 107 IP against Scherzer's 7.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in just 36 IP. Neutral park (0.997); Boston's 6.5 RPG plus Scherzer's baserunner rate nudges me slightly over 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -129 betrivers / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-145 / +124BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -106
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total