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NYY 1 / TOR 3
NYYNew York Yankees61%
TORToronto Blue Jays39%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline61%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterShane BieberConfirmed
NYY61%ML -151
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TOR39%ML +128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts

Cole (3.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.71 K/9 over 80.7 IP) is a clear step above Bieber (5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in 42.7 IP), and the model's 61.4% on NYY is close to the market's implied ~59%. NYY's 3.5 RPG and .692 OPS cap the ceiling, so the model's 9.21-run total looks high versus the 8.0 line in a neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin2.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.8
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -157 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 betmgm / U -156 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-151 / +128NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.8O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total