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TBR 12 / TOR 2
TBRTampa Bay Rays45%
TORToronto Blue Jays55%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
TORHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
TBR45%ML -109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TOR55%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model likes TOR at 54.7% vs market's 48.6% - a 6-point comparison. But TBR has better record (57-42 vs 46-54), better starter (Rasmussen 3.26 ERA vs Gausman 4.33), and better OPS (.802 vs .786). Model's home bias here seems unjustified. Market total 7.5 vs model 8.51 - lean over given both offenses can hit and neither pitcher dominates.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betonlineag / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%under
O 2.590%under
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-109 / -110TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total