MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / TOR 0NYMNew York Mets47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
TORHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
NYM47%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TOR53%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 draftkings / U -106 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-112 / -108NYM / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total