MLB / mlb / live
TEX 5 / TOR 4TEXTexas Rangers58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterPatrick CorbinConfirmed
TEX58%ML -108
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TOR42%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Patrick CorbinTOR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 betmgm / U +140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -112TEX / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total