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HOU 9 / TOR 7
HOUHouston Astros58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterShane BieberConfirmed
HOU58%ML +105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TOR42%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.5 pts

Model favors HOU 58% but market has TOR -127 (55% implied). Model likely overweighting HOU's short-window runs allowed without seeing Bieber's actual stats (fallback data). Market knows Bieber is back; I lean TOR but with low confidence given the data gap. Total 8.05 vs market 8.5 suggests under in a neutral park.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 draftkings / U -122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -125HOU / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total