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HOU 2 / TOR 4
HOUHouston Astros44%
TORToronto Blue Jays56%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHunter BrownConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
HOU44%ML +110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
TOR56%ML -132

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.4 pts

TOR starter is TBD (fallback to 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). Brown's 1.10 ERA in 16.1 IP is not sustainable but model correctly leans HOU. Market at HOU +110 vs model 53.4% implies is close. Total gap (9.57 vs 7.0) is concerning with TBD pitcher; pass on total given structural uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -142 draftkings / U +125 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.578%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%over
O 8.540%under
O 9.528%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+110 / -132HOU / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total