MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / TOR 3NYYNew York Yankees55%
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterPatrick CorbinConfirmed
NYY55%ML -132
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
TOR45%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -121 betrivers / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Patrick CorbinTOR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +114 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total