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NYY 3 / TOR 1
NYYNew York Yankees49%
TORToronto Blue Jays51%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickTOR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
NYY49%ML -118
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
TOR51%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.5 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.6% TOR), market leans NYY at 53.7%. Schlittler's 1.87 ERA over 82 IP is legit, not small-sample noise. Model's 9.07 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.57 gap—model likely underweighting Schlittler's dominance. Take NYY lean, under standard.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 fanduel / U -152 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / +100NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total