MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / TOR 3PHIPhiladelphia Phillies40%
TORToronto Blue Jays60%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickTOR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
PHI40%ML -109
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TOR60%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.3 pts
Wheeler has no season stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null); data_quality='full' is misleading. Cease's 5.1 IP over 10 starts averages 0.5 IP/start—clearly incomplete data. Model shows 9pp comparison over market but relies on broken pitcher inputs. Cannot form view without valid starter context.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -110PHI / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total