MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / TOR 3PHIPhiladelphia Phillies40%
TORToronto Blue Jays60%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickTOR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
PHI40%ML -109
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TOR60%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.1 pts
Wheeler has no season stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null); data_quality='full' is misleading. Cease's 5.1 IP over 10 starts averages 0.5 IP/start—clearly incomplete data. Model shows 9pp comparison over market but relies on broken pitcher inputs. Cannot form view without valid starter context.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-109 / -110PHI / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total