MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / TOR 1PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
PIT42%ML +146
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TOR58%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts
Model likes TOR 58% vs market 60.5%, no comparison. Keller's 0.0 ERA in 6 IP (10 starts listed but only 6 IP = 0.6 IP/start average) is corrupted data. Cease 1.69 ERA / 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is tiny sample but elite. Ace matchup + neutral park argue under 7.5. Passing on side, lean under on credible Cease data.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+146 / -175PIT / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total