MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / TOR 5PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
TORToronto Blue Jays54%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul Skenes
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterPatrick Corbin
PIT46%ML -147
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
TOR54%ML +123
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model has TOR 53.5%, market implies PIT 58.5% — a 12pp gap flags structural miss. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is noise (67.5 ERA meaningless), but market knows he's elite. TOR offense at 3.9 RPG/.786 OPS vs PIT 4.4 RPG suggests model wrongly favors weaker side. Lean PIT and under the 7.5.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-147 / +123PIT / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -123
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total