MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / TOR 5TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
TORToronto Blue Jays48%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterGriffin Jax
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
TBR52%ML +136
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TOR48%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts
Model has TBR at 52% but market implies TOR 59%. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite but sample tiny. Jax (18.0 ERA, 1.0 IP) data is essentially noise. Model's 9.24 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.74-run gap—classic structural miss on small pitcher samples. Market knows Jax isn't really that bad and likely adjusted for Cease's micro-sample. Side with sharp money on TOR and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+136 / -162TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total