MLB / mlb / live
TBR 8 / TOR 5TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
TBR42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
TOR58%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.1 pts
Model has TOR 57.5% vs market 53.2%. Gausman's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP with 16.5 K/9 is elite. Rasmussen's 3.6 K/9 is concerning but 1.80 ERA holds. Ace matchup supports under on 7.5 total. TBR's superior record (26-13) vs TOR (18-22) keeps this a lean.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total