MLB / mlb / live
LAA 0 / TOR 2LAALos Angeles Angels43%
TORToronto Blue Jays57%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickTOR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
LAA43%ML +138
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
TOR57%ML -164
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Model has TOR 57% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP is extreme small sample—likely regresses but still strong today. Detmers' 5.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP favor TOR offense. Model total 8.81 vs market 7.5 is 1.3-run gap; LAA's 4.0 RPG and .860 OPS suggest they can score on anyone. Lean over on total despite Cease.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+138 / -164LAA / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total