MLB / mlb / live
BOS 0 / TOR 3BOSBoston Red Sox37%
TORToronto Blue Jays63%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickTOR moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterTrey Yesavage
BOS37%ML +100
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
TOR63%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.9 pts
Both pitchers are fallback data (Yesavage 5.1 IP, Tolle no stats). Model has TOR at 62.9% vs market 51.2% — an 11.7pp gap with zero pitcher context. Cannot validate model's confidence on home StatCast metrics when SP data is missing. This is structural uncertainty, not an comparison.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total