MLB / mlb / live
BOS 0 / TOR 3BOSBoston Red Sox37%
TORToronto Blue Jays63%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickTOR moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterTrey Yesavage
BOS37%ML +100
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
TOR63%ML -118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.7 pts
Both pitchers are fallback data (Yesavage 5.1 IP, Tolle no stats). Model has TOR at 62.9% vs market 51.2% — an 11.7pp gap with zero pitcher context. Cannot validate model's confidence on home StatCast metrics when SP data is missing. This is structural uncertainty, not an comparison.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total