MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / TOR 5CLECleveland Guardians47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
CLE47%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TOR53%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.4 pts
Gausman's 1.50 ERA, 16.5 K/9, 0.17 WHIP over 6.0 IP (likely 1 start) screams elite form. Cantillo's 4.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP is exploitable. Market at TOR -144 (57.8% implied) vs model 53.4% suggests value on TOR. Model total 9.09 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting offense, underweighting Gausman's dominance in pitcher-neutral park.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150CLE / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total