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NYM 6 / TEX 3
NYMNew York Mets57%
TEXTexas Rangers43%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
TEXHome starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
NYM57%ML +108
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
TEX43%ML -128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.1 pts

Market implies 56.3% home while the model has NYM at 56.9% — a ~13-point gap with no clear justification. NYM has the worse record (71-85 vs 78-78) and fewer runs per game (4.1 vs 4.6) despite better OPS, so the model is picking the weaker side on offense and record. Starters are near-identical (Gore 4.67, Manaea 4.74); in a 1.04 park with both WHIPs ~1.33, 8.0 looks low.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 draftkings / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +119 draftkings / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+108 / -128NYM / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total