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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
NYMNew York Mets50%
TEXTexas Rangers50%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanProbable
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260921_auto
TEXHome starterCody BradfordProbable
NYM50%ML -109
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TEX50%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.5 pts

Market is pick'em and the model barely leans NYM at 51.9%, so there's no real comparison. McLean's 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are the one clean signal, but Texas lists TBD with fallback stats (4.59 ERA), so the home side is unresolved. Model total of 8.95 sits well above the 7.5 line and rests on an unknown starter, so no total view.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.540%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-109 / -110NYM / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total