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NYM 7 / TEX 2
NYMNew York Mets50%
TEXTexas Rangers50%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260921_auto
TEXHome starterCody BradfordConfirmed
NYM50%ML -110
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
TEX50%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts

Market is pick'em and the model barely leans NYM at 51.9%, so there's no real comparison. McLean's 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are the one clean signal, but Texas lists TBD with fallback stats (4.59 ERA), so the home side is unresolved. Model total of 8.95 sits well above the 7.5 line and rests on an unknown starter, so no total view.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Cody BradfordTEX starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -158 fanduel / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.574%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -110NYM / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-183)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total