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scheduled
NYMNew York Mets57%
TEXTexas Rangers43%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
TEXHome starterKumar RockerConfirmed
NYM57%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
TEX43%ML -132

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts

Model has NYM at 56.9% vs market's 45.9% implied — an 11-point gap on a team that is 73-85 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game despite a .736 OPS. Thornton's 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are the real comparison, but that is not enough to flip a home favorite. Slight preference for TEX at -124; under 8.5 given NYM's weak run production.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.578%
O 3.559%
O 4.540%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K5.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.555%
O 5.538%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+110 / -132NYM / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total